Job Growth Stalls on Trump Disruptions
By Reuters | 05 Sep, 2025

Irrational levels of tariffs on imports essential to US businesses and consumers is reducing the business confidence needed to create new jobs.

U.S. job growth weakened sharply in August while the unemployment rate increased to nearly a four-year high of 4.3%, confirming that labor market conditions were softening and sealing the case for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month.

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday also showed the economy lost jobs in June for the first time in 4-1/2 years. Job growth has shifted into stall-speed, with economists blaming President Donald Trump's sweeping import tariffs and an immigration crackdown that has reduced the labor pool. Softness in the labor market is mostly coming from the hiring side. There were more unemployed people than vacancies in July for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trump's duties, which have boosted the nation's average tariff rate to the highest level since 1934, stoked fears of higher inflation, prompting the U.S. central bank to pause its interest rate cutting cycle. Just as some of the uncertainty over trade policy was starting to lift with most tariffs now in place, a U.S. appeals court ruled last Friday that many of the duties were illegal, keeping businesses in a state of flux.

"The warning bell that rang in the labor market a month ago just got louder," said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings. "The Fed is likely to prioritize labor market stability over its inflation mandate, even as inflation drifts further from the 2% target. It's hard to argue that tariff uncertainty isn't a key driver of this weakness."

Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 79,000 in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls would rise by 75,000 positions after a previously reported gain of 73,000 in July. Estimates ranged from no jobs added to 144,000 positions created.

Revisions also showed payrolls declined by 13,000 jobs in June, the first drop since December 2020, rather than rising by 14,000, as had been reported last month.

The unemployment rate increased from 4.2% in July, in part due to more people entering the labor force.

Some of the sharp job growth slowdown last month could be tied to a seasonal quirk. The initial August job count has tended to exhibit a weak bias, with revisions subsequently showing strength. Nonetheless, employment growth has softened considerably, averaging 29,000 jobs per month in the last three months, compared to 82,000 during the same period in 2024. 

The bulk of the jobs added in August were in healthcare, with payrolls in the sector rising 31,000. But even this pillar of the labor market is showing strain as the increase was below the average monthly gain of 42,000 over the last 12 months.

Employment in the social assistance industry increased by 16,000 positions. Government data this week showed healthcare and social assistance job openings posting back-to-back declines in July.

Federal government payrolls dropped by 15,000 and employment in that area is now down 97,000 since January. A sharp decrease is expected in October after employees collecting severance pay fall off payrolls in the prior month. 

There were job losses in a number of sectors, including wholesale trade, manufacturing, construction, and professional and business services.

"It's a little bit of a disappointing job number, but I pretty much expect it's going to revise up," White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC after the release of the employment report.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell last month signaled a rate cut was possible at the U.S. central bank's September 16-17 policy meeting, acknowledging the rising labor market risks, but he also added that inflation remained a threat. The Fed has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December.

U.S. Treasury yields fell on the data. The dollar declined against a basket of currencies.

LOW LABOR MARKET CHURN

Trump last month fired the BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her, without evidence, of manipulating the employment data. That followed sharp downward revisions to payroll counts for May and June.

But economists have defended McEntarfer and attributed the revisions to the "birth-and-death" model, a method the BLS uses to try to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month.

"We are in a low churn labor market, with not a lot of hiring or firing happening. So that means the job growth that we do see in the economy is mainly driven by the net birth of new firms," said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale University.

"But that just happens to be the most imputed part. It's the most sensitive to revision because it's the result of explicit modeling by BLS, rather than something that they can survey."

Slow job growth is likely to be reinforced when the BLS on Tuesday publishes its preliminary revision estimate to the level of employment for the 12 months through March. 

Based on the currently available Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, economists estimate the level of employment could be revised down by as much as 800,000. The QCEW data is derived from reports by employers to the state unemployment insurance programs. 

Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, to replace McEntarfer. Antoni, who has penned opinion pieces critical of the BLS and even suggested suspending the monthly employment report, is largely viewed as unqualified by economists across political ideologies.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Richard Chang, Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao)