Can China Avoid the Soviet Union's Fate? | Asian American Issues

CAN CHINA AVOID THE SOVIET UNION'S FATE?

he People's Republic of China likes to compare itself with the United States. Both governments were forged to throw off the imperial yoke. Both are amalgams of many races and nationalities. Both are great continental powers capable of harnessing immense resources to promote national agendas around the world.
     Beijing's bosses cite these parallels to justify China's ambition of returning Taiwan to the fold -- forcibly if necessary -- and violently suppressing movements for Tibetan independence, Moslem separatism and religious tolerance. The party line: "In a few decades we will be as prosperous, unified and democratic as you Americans."
     Unfortunately, some observers see closer parallels to the former Soviet Union.
     Founded in 1910 to free Russian peasants from oppressive landowners and a weak imperial government, the Soviet government quickly and ruthlessly expanded into a superpower that rivaled the United States in military might and reach. On top of nearly 300 million citizens of several dozen captive nationalities, the Soviet Union became the puppetmasters of virtually every Eastern European government. By 1989 it was buckling under the burden of superpower competition. In 1991 the communists lost power to the reformist Yeltsin. The Soviet Union broke apart into Russia and a dozen independent republics. Today Russia is a nation of 150 million struggling to build a capitalist economy from the rubble of the communist meltdown.
     Among the Soviets' earliest converts were Mao Tsetung, Zhou Enlai and other young Chinese intellectuals who saw in communism salvation for the Chinese people from western imperialism and internal corruption. Mao's long struggle against Chiang Kaishek and the Kuomingtang would have ended disasterously without the support of dozens of ethnic minorities in northwestern China who believed his promise of ultimate political autonomy. Their help proved more valuable to Mao than the billions in American aid and direct military assistance to Chiang. By 1949 the Kuomingtang had fled to Taiwan and the PRC ruled the mainland.
     Beijing's bosses have been as ruthless as the Soviets in consolidating territory and suppressing separatist movements. But they have been far more successful in creating a functioning economy. They began capitalist reforms in 1979. By 2001 China's economy had become free enough to enter the World Trade Organization. For the past two decades it has grown at an average annual rate of 9%. Few of China's 1.25 billion go hungry and about 125 million enjoy living standards comparable to Malaysia and the Philippines. By some measure China has just surpassed Japan in GDP and will surpass the U.S. by 2025.
     But China's future as a united nation is far from assured.
     Even assuming peaceful reunification with Taiwan and victory over Tibetan separatists, Beijing's leaders face some big hurdles. They must integrate a billion subsistence-level farmers and workers into the consumer economy of the east coast or face ethnic discontent on a scale that would dwarf America's racial strife of the 1960s. Yet burdening the developed regions could breed separatist sentiment in Guangdong, Fujien, Manchuria and other regions. Over 100 languages and dialects are spoken in China. Long-suppressed religious minorities are becoming better organized thanks to the internet and other communications technology.
     Are China's prospects for staying united more like those of the U.S. or of the former Soviet Union?

(Updated )

I think of all Chinese minority regions, it is only Xinjiang province which they will hold on to by any means. They can afford to let go of Tibet and Inner Mongolia, but Xinjiang has so much minerals, natural gas and other goodies that they will not lose it without a conflict. And, many Han Chinese have settled there for thousands of years it is really impossible to let go of it. Remember that the Turkic Muslim peoples there are but only one component of the ethnic groups living there. There are Chinese and Iranoid groups living there as well.
General Zuo
Saturday, December 01, 2001 at 22:44:35 (PST)

Let the Cantonese and adjacent Guangxi province break away and form their own republic of "Tang guo" (Country of the Tang Dynasty) since many of its people even in the streets of Chinatowns in the USA and abroad refer to themselves as "Tang yun" (People of the Tang Dynasty).

The Cantonese have always seen themselves as the real Chinese descended from the Tang Dynasty Chinese, while they view northerners as "Mongols and Manchus" masquerading as "Chinese."
Tyler Wadsworth
Saturday, December 01, 2001 at 22:40:03 (PST)

"No nation becomes a truly modern without first shedding the possessions of
its imperial past."

Duh,america is stolen by white settlers from the native americans and the US is still the most powerful nation in the world.
Joey
Wednesday, November 21, 2001 at 06:40:29 (PST)

Tang Blood Taiwan Soul, Taiwan has been part of China since the Ching Dynasty, longer than the U.S. has been in existence. The difference between the U.S./UK example and China/Taiwan is that the U.S. was never, ever a part of the UK; the U.S. was always a colony. Taiwan has never been a colony of China; it has always been a part of China. The Constitution of the ROC itself states that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. This has nothing to do with "imperial past". Sun Yatsen, the founder of Modern China, had Taiwan as a part of China. Modern Taiwan's Constitution has Taiwan as a part of China. Thus, there is no need to justify Taiwan as a part of China because it already is! The status quo, including all legal documents, has Taiwan as a part of China. Your arguments make no sense whatsoever. Do you support the U.S. shedding its "imperial" past, such as by giving California back to Mexico? You are illogical and, frankly, nothing you say will make any difference in the years to come, as China rises as a superpower and reunifies with Taiwan.
Realist
Tuesday, November 20, 2001 at 21:10:38 (PST)

Tang blood and Taiwan soul,

Why are you trying a draw a discussion on Taiwan/China issue on this board with Realist?

AC dropout
Tuesday, November 20, 2001 at 15:46:02 (PST)

shingbing,

There are currently 9 seats in Taiwan parliment set aside for the minority groups. They each group elects one representative to represent them in government. It sort of like affirmative action politics, to make up for social repression. Doesn't make any sense politically, but it appeases the Han majority their guilt.

The Han immigrant of prior to 1949 and after 1949 group treat the aboriginal group as social outcast. Mix marriage are rare and frowned upon, etc., etc.

Ruo,

Think of the male/female ratio as a way to get more female rights in China. With females being a scarce item they will be treated with more respect and given more freedoms, as it was with American women in the West Wild days of American history.

It will promote only the most sucessful males in China will be able to breed.

AC dropout
Tuesday, November 20, 2001 at 15:10:05 (PST)

Realist:

Stop being paranoid, I'm not making any effort to divide the country. I'm not even from your country. You've not provided any justification for why Taiwan is a part of China that couldn't be similarly applied to justify U.S. being a part of Great Britain, Eastern Turkestan being part of Uzbekistan, Inner Mongolia being a part of Outer Mongolia, aside from the usual mainland carping about the territories being Chinese since time immemorial (i.e. since some Manchurians who called themselves Ch'ing dynasty decided China's borders needed expanding).

No nation becomes a truly modern without first shedding the possessions of its imperial past.
Tang blood and Taiwan soul
Tuesday, November 20, 2001 at 09:07:02 (PST)

it seems like we always focus on the issue of how china ill-treated its minority people, and some speculate and suggest that china should be split into different independent countries. That is absolutely absurd and hypocritic. come to think of it, western countries like the US have even commited greater atrocities towards its minorities, like annihilating entire Indian tribes which might have survived till today if Colombus hadnt discovered the New World.we dont see the chinese killing tibetans or hui muslims to the brink of extinction.The British invaded Tibet and overran Lhasa its capital,killed its people,why isnt anyone makin a fuss abt what happened? If you think china should "free" its "suppressed" minorities,then, on the same basis, i think the US should also "free" the Indians and Inuit natives and give back their lands and rights.

BTW,i would want to know if native people in Taiwan are treated fairly by the Taiwanese government and the Taiwanese of Chinese descent, and if there has ever been friction aand conflicts between the majority Han Taiwanese and the native tribes.When KMT came to Taiwan, millions of chinese from the mainland swarmed the island .and we rarely heard of any native Taiwanese holding important and prominent roles in Taiwanese politics,economy,and other aspects. I want to know how these natives are treated in taiwan.
shingbing
Tuesday, November 20, 2001 at 07:25:22 (PST)

One big issue that is not mentioned I think is the possible gender imbalance that will affect China's upcoming generation in the future. There is known to be at least a 100M surplus of young males in China now. It is obvious many families selectively abort or kill female infants. This is due to the one-child policy and the traditional Chinese preference of male children to continue the patrilineal lines. Here, we are talking about close to 1/10th of Chinese men someday not being able to find a spouse or lover. This would really have some social ramifications unless foreign brides are imported. And, spouses might have to accept adultery due to this competition for women. Which poses the question of possible STDs on the rise?
Ruo
Monday, November 19, 2001 at 23:43:11 (PST)

holler,

the difference between China and Yugoslavia is that the Serbs did not really form a solid majority in either Bosnia nor Kosovo to begin with. Han Chinese much outnumber the natives in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, etc. And, often they have been living there for centuries much affecting and diluting the native cultures. Even, now in Siberia, packs of Han Chinese flock there all the way to Belgrade! Until they make it to Western Europe.
breeding like rabbits
Monday, November 19, 2001 at 12:56:36 (PST)

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